Russian marketMoroccan and Turkish exporters see the Russian veto as a business deal while the EC thinks about it.

Turkish and Moroccan exports of vegetables and fruits are emerging as the biggest beneficiaries of the veto dictated by Vladimir Putin, president of russia, against agricultural imports from the European Union, besides the United States, Canada, Norway and Japan.

The restrictive measures have come into force after being published on the government portal of legal regulations of the Russian Federation, next to the list of affected products.

The head of the Turkish Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association, Salih Cali, has indicated to the Russian television channel HTB (NTV) that their partnership could increase supplies to Russia.

Salih Cali has argued that “a maximally favorable situation arises for us regarding the export of our vegetables and fruits to Russia.”.

The representative of Turkish exporters has expressed confidence that Russia will relax phytosanitary controls on its vegetables and fruits., to facilitate access to the Russian market.

"In 2012, we sold products to Russia for 800 millions of dollars. Last year we invoiced 876 millions of dollars, and in the first seven months of the current year, yes 440 million. “We could increase supplies to Russia”, Cali pointed out..

On the other hand, the president of the Moroccan Association of Exporters (Asmex), Hasan Sentisi, commented that “It is a decision that comes at the right time for Morocco and a unique opportunity to integrate into the Russian market once and for all.”. “We have to take advantage to export to the maximum” and “Let's anticipate and prepare the ground for this offensive”, he said.

Morocco does not want to wait and has already begun to do its homework in search of business. Thus, Sentisi said that the greatest opportunities presented to the country are related to agri-food products., fishing and leather. He even recalled that King Mohamed VI is planning a visit to Russia next fall., in which the possibility of strengthening commercial exchanges can present itself in a more timely manner than ever.

Regarding leather, explained that currently many shoes made in Morocco are purchased by EU customers and then re-exported to Russia, With which the embargo could allow Morocco to export directly and have higher profit margins.

The president of Asmex admitted that there are several obstacles that hinder the flow of trade with Russia: on the one hand, the existence of a single direct maritime line (from Agadir) with a Russian port; for another, the different taxes and entry fees for the Russian market.

Today, the volume of trade exchanges between Russia and Morocco is low, around the 18.000 million dirhams (1.600 million euros) annual, of which only 2.000 millions of dirhams correspond to Moroccan sales.

Negotiations with Belarus

Moscow and Minsk will negotiate next week a possible increase in imports of agricultural and food products from Belarus to Russia, said the Belarusian Minister of Agriculture, Leonid Zaiats, who has specified that these negotiations will take place following the prohibition of imports to Russia of the same products from the countries that had imposed sanctions against Moscow due to the crisis in Ukraine..

“I had a conversation with the head of Rosseljoznadzor (the Federal Agency for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Control of Russia), Sergei Dankvert. Next week he intends to travel to Belarus to discuss issues related to imports of Belarusian products to the Russian market.”, Indian.

Leonid Zaiats added that Belarus has practically established the quantities it plans to export this year. “We have the possibility to significantly increase supplies to the Russian market”, the Belarusian minister assured.

For his part, Leonid Marinich, first deputy minister of agriculture and food of Belarus, He has said that “for us it is a gold mine. We are ready to replace Western countries in many aspects, in particular, in food exports.

In addition to other products, Belarus is ready to increase the supply of vegetables. “We will replace the Dutch potato, Polish apples and other fruit and vegetable products. “We have it all”, Marinich added..

Also Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan is ready to double fruit and vegetable exports to Russia, the representative of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources of the Republic of Uzbekistan told the Nóvosti agency, Hardy Artíkov.

The export of fruits and vegetables from Uzbekistan to Russia last year was 200 thousand tons. This year it could increase by 50-70 thousand tons, worth more than 400 millions of dollars, Artikov specified, and for 2016 reach the 500 thousand tons.

Fruit and vegetable supplies to Russia account for almost 80 percent of Uzbekistan's export volume. “Last year our country, by the export volumes of these products to Russia, overtook Poland, Spain, Argentina, “Morocco and Italy”, indicated the representative of the Ministry.

According to the data of 2013, the volume of production of fruits and vegetables in Uzbekistan amounted to 8,4 percent, up to 10,6 million tonnes, cucurbits, up to 1,57 million tonnes (+10,3%), grapes, up to 1,3 million tonnes (+9,2%).

Different evaluations indicate that 500-700 thousand tons of this annual volume are exported to the CIS countries, mainly to Russia and Kazakhstan, cita Novosti.

Imports from Latin America

Russia has also surveyed several Latin American countries in search of alternative markets for purchasing agri-food products., raw materials and food.

The director of the Russian Agricultural and Livestock Inspection Service, Sergei Dankvert, met with the Ecuadorian ambassadors, Chilean, Argentine and Uruguayan in Moscow and plans to do the same with representatives of Brazil.

Only in the case of the EU, Russia's main trading partner, agri-food imports amounted to 12.000 million euros last year.

Dankvert highlighted during the meeting with the Latin American ambassadors that the current world situation offers great possibilities for these countries to increase their agri-food exports to the Russian market..

European warmth

On the other side of the coin, The first reaction of the European Commission has been to warn Russia that it reserves the right “to take action” against the Russian embargo, although he did not want to reveal what they could consist of or if he has a basis to go to the World Trade Organization again. (OMC), as it did in April due to Moscow's veto on the import of pork from the Union.

Russia then took this measure due to isolated cases of African swine fever, alleging food safety reasons, while now he has imposed the veto for “ensure safety” of the Federation.

The EC will create this Monday as a first step a working group to analyze the impact of the Russian veto on each affected sector and evaluate how to best support farmers.. He will also hold a meeting on Thursday with the Member States at expert level in order to analyze the evolution of the markets in these first days of the ban..

moment, The EC considers that it is too premature to talk about compensation because it trusts, in the words of Ciolos himself, in which the agricultural sector “quickly reorient itself towards new markets and new opportunities” to limit the negative effect of the veto, although this transition may also require help.

The first estimates of the possible impact of the Russian import ban amount to about 5.252 million euros for the entire EU, according to exports in 2013 of banned products, of which 5.098 million correspond to agri-food products and, 154 million, to fishing boats.

Is about “less than half of all EU agricultural exports to Russia” last year, who rose to 11.865 million euros, strives to emphasize the EC. This in turn “alone” supposes the 9,9 % of all shipments of this type of products abroad (119.791 million euros).

In addition, remember from the Commission, part of the 5.252 million euros refers to products already banned by Russia previously (such as pork and Polish fruits and vegetables).

On the Russian side, The measure will also have its impact, because the Federation is “a net importing country”, remember in the Commission. The Open Europe think tank estimates that Russia's imports of agricultural products amount to 13,3% of all its imports.

For Russians the consequences will probably be higher prices (driving inflation) and less choice in the shopping cart, although Russia intends to compensate for the loss of community products and other banned countries with imports from Latin America.